06 Oct 2020 08:43:02
Hi Ed002, did Filip Stevanovic move during the window, i cannot find any news on him? Thanks in advance.

{Ed002's Note - No, although one of the offers was from a club where the transfer window remains open. Next year would be more likely for now.}


1.) 06 Oct 2020
06 Oct 2020 09:53:58
According to Andy Mitten the whole deal was false and was never happening.


2.) 06 Oct 2020
06 Oct 2020 10:56:13
you should listen to ed02 not him.

{Ed002's Note - There were three offers for the player.}


3.) 06 Oct 2020
06 Oct 2020 11:55:20
I didn't say I don't believe Ed002. I stated what another Utd source said.


4.) 06 Oct 2020
06 Oct 2020 16:14:29
@Cheshire Red any info on if we’ll try for De Ligt again? Their finances are in an absolute shambles I can’t see how they can survive the way they’re going.


5.) 07 Oct 2020
06 Oct 2020 23:59:12
Prodigal I am rarely genuinely in the know and I deliberately don't set out to ask questions of people I know because, one, we are mates and they prefer a normal life and it feels a bit weird, I also ask when I have been told stuff whether it's sensitive, opinion or an 'open secret' at Carrington. In short, can I talk or not.

Ed 002 is very often a great source of insight and far more likely to be up to speed on actual activity and discussion with agents.

I know nothing other than what I already posted.

The only reason I said anything is because there was so much fake info flying around and media hysteria that just doesn't explain any situation properly or impartially that I did comment. I also went back and checked before I said anything about a source.

We do have a group of lads now moving in the right direction. Work needs doing with Harry because his head is gone because of his summer. Self inflicted to a very minor degree and a terrible way to learn about the limitations that come with his status as a Utd player and captain, but he's very much of today's generation, very naive and not at all streetwise.

World class centre backs are very hard to come by. Right now its Upamecano and is dependent on 2 things going our way. If not, I would expect us to 'Do a Chelsea'. Our net spend is just shy of £80m. We have suffered with a big hit revenue wise, but proportionately nowhere bear as badly as other clubs. don't be surprised with 2 or even 3 big January moves as clubs continue to forecast finances.

So time will tell, however we did not spend anywhere near what we anticpated and sent a strong message by refusing to pay for Sancho. Think back. Dortmund were the ones openly stating weekly the same message. The truth is they expected Utd to crumble, hence in the last 2 weeks no less than 5 different people at Dortmund raising the issue. If it was dead, why don't they STFU, and simply say to the media, move on, not interested in speaking. Utd said norhing whatsoever publicly at any point, and privately briefed only twice to update a previous red line, just to test the water. But they never said Sancho wasnt worth it, they said they wouldn't and couldn't pay that type of fee in a C.V. with finances so unpredictable.

So when in July and August they were getting slated for not getting the deal done, that's because they knew the reality of CV which is now much clearer to everyone else in the world. Lockdown is here to stay.

Dortmund painted themselves into a corner and now coming out saying next year a bidding war. What an absolute load of drivel. Clubs will all be weaker. Every one of them. Us included. Transfers will be worth less again than they were this year. Its a Koulibaly strategy. De laurentis was being open this year that he shouldn't have been so greedy and sold at the optimum value last year. Dortmund risk the same, deluding themselves with past deals driving future prices. As with all investments, depending on market forces, they can go up, OR, in a C.V., they can go down also. Anyone who thinks next summer will be a return to normal is in for a huge wake up call. This financial impact hasn't even started yet! The worst is yet to come.

The next 3 months will be a real barometer for what happens in January, but I will share my expectation.

Firstly, ignore the utter nonsense in the press about next summer. By next summer lots of clubs will be in serious serious trouble. They will be on the verge of panic by Christmas with projected revenues aligned to their progress in Europe.

You can expect ANYTHING if a massive club fails to make the play off stages and Government strategies worldwide do not change on restrictions on fans. Any club out of the UCL or EL losing upto £50m in European money, AND no matchday revenue will be selling either in Jan or summer at latest. Players will have to play their part too.

We wll either bring in 2 players in Jan or 4 major upgrades next summer.

We are still work in progress but we will get better and we have, in my opinion, significantly strengthened in 3 areas. That is by no means a failure of any sort, by the club or the board.

We also shipped Sancez off the books, and Smalling Dalot and Perreira. that's a £41.5m instant gain in the wage bill, fees and loan fees, with £47m in possible permanent fees though I would honestly expect to knock 20 to 30% off that simply due to a global downturn in player valuations as 'long C.V.' hits the news more and realiry dawns that there is no more old normal.

How anyone can call that failure and view that window negatively is beyond me. We are all entitled to our opinion, but I cannot fathom why there is such huge negativity.

Its progress on all fronts. Those are football and commercial facts. We improved the team, invested in the future (as many have commented our under 23s business has been absolutely world class), we continued with lower risk fringe first team acquistions in Pellestri and Dallo, got rid of 4 who were wasting our money and squad numbers and brought 3 great additions in.

I for one am very happy with steps forward. The ones that got away? You can never lose what you never had!


6.) 07 Oct 2020
07 Oct 2020 07:00:07
I stopped reading at "Lockdown is here to stay" if anyone seriously believes people are going to stay locked in a bubble and losing jobs they're deluded. Just let it play out .


7.) 07 Oct 2020
07 Oct 2020 07:20:08
Great read Cheshire, makes a lot of sense.


8.) 07 Oct 2020
07 Oct 2020 08:57:27
Cheshire what a very insightful post it makes a lot of sense i just hope ole can get ruthless and can turn this around because i believe in his process i don't see the point and haven't to start from scratch again with a new manager.


9.) 07 Oct 2020
07 Oct 2020 09:38:26
Completely with Cheshire here - really well explained, informed post.

Whilst I’m gutted at the moment about how the first team are playing (fitness? Mentality? Unrest? Maguire? Pogba? Others probably also? ) I think there is real hope for the future - which fills me with real excitement.

Yes, I’d like us competing now - and, after seeing his benefits for so long, OGS just has to go now, to be replaced by Pochetino, because of his hard ruthless focus and the way he works with younger players - and if we had an Upemecano and a Rice, I think we’d have a team/ squad to compete, but the future - with the right boss and management structure - looks amazing. Maybe the board have been planning 5 years ahead all this time?

Just look at the players who will be maturing together in the next few years (plus younger first trainers now) :

Henderson
Swindon loanee goalie Kovar?

Mengi
D’shon bernard
That new french lad Kuwumbala?!
Jurado plus other one from Real
Williams
Wan Bissaka
Axel Tuanzebe
Fish

Garner
Laird
Shoretire
Hannibal
Pellistri

Traore
Greenwood
Martial
Hugill
Rashford

I think the board did exactly the right thing with Sancho: way too expensive in current climate and didn’t want to come anyway (plus attitude to rules? ) and maybe get him next summer.

Thus we need to tread water for another season or two, with pochetino, trying to stay in the top 4, then go for it after that.

Though obviously this is being consumed by Man United - there are much more important things going on at the moment in the world, so guess we’re lucky just to have a team at all.


10.) 07 Oct 2020
07 Oct 2020 09:46:26
Cheshire red another good read thst and an interesting point of view, nice to see a different take on the situation to be honest.


11.) 07 Oct 2020
07 Oct 2020 14:09:03
Redpaul i think he means the concequences of lock down and none can disagree with that.


12.) 07 Oct 2020
07 Oct 2020 20:27:08
I do indeed Herrera, however the concepts of lockdown are more in respect of restrictions.

One thing very misunderstood is statute. As in the LEGAL responsibilities of a Government. Take for example the legal demands upon the NHS. That is, First, Do no harm. that's a legally enforceable precedent that in essence means, do nothing as a statutory body that may harm citizens.

This in context is where the C.V. is misunderstood. It is also where 'activists' get to play out their agenda often through spin rather than truths.

Its also where democracy kicks in as both a counterbalance to the actions of Government can be challenged, both in free speech but also legally through the courts. Did you know for example, the LEGALITY of lockdown has been challenged twice and found to be not only legal, but proportionate, aligned with the view of experts and necessary actions of Government to protect not only the vulnerable as a lweal requirement, but to protect people from their own inexperienced or poor judgment or bad behaviour. isn't that the very foundation of ANY law or rule?

So when I say lockdown is here to stay, RedPaul, I mean in the context of the legal obligations of a Government first and foremost to protect its tax paying citizens (thats the contractual balance if you like) for the 'service we buy from our taxes'. In essence we devolve responsibility for managing society to a function of Governance, hence the word Government.

They must follow this law, which means doing what is required, crucially NOT what may just be popular. This extends in all forms of Governance, employers having legal teslonsibility for the Health and Safety of Employees. Same basic principles.

In turn if any disagreements between industry, the public, employer or employee bodies can challenge the legality of any decisions taken by Government.

Parliament regulates decisions taken and approves them. This week, parliament reapproved the rolling 90 day legislation for requiring businesses and individuals to follow social distancing and lockdown rules. That takes us to 2021 at the earliest.

There has also been time booked to hear thebsame request in January, and IT WILL, not might, WILL be approved.

The impact, for RedPauls benefit are going to become more, not less severe. There is a new bill going through to give emergency powers at local and national level to require ANy premises, public or private sector to be closed as a result of people not following the rules.

Now before you claim rebellion, just reflect. Would a Government realistically and logically deliberately impose measures it fully knows are going to be massively unpopular and economically damaging without due cause?

Is that logical? Does it make sense to you?

Does it make sense to make things even tougher, knowing it may cause civil unrest and disobedience?

So with C.V., look at the impact on the logistics of football.

Some countries, let's take Germany, have set 20% of capacity limits of bringing fans back in. Other restriction applies such as prioritising only ticket holders you can PROVE come from an area with less than 35 cases per 100k of populus. NO AWAY FANS ALLOWED, period, to restrict travel.

Further, the location of the club must meet that same standard. Right now, every single part of the UK with a premier team fails this test.

In the past week, so too does Germany, if they go another week (they review each fortnight), no more fans again. Germany as of Tuesday was at 35.1 per 100k across the entire country, but it ia rising not falling. Their benchmark is 35! In short, no more fans at all until it falls again. But testing is increasing, so the chance of that is doubtful. More tests, more chances of positives, so do the math.

Utd position. They are planning financially and logistically that fans will be allowed back in MARCH at the earliest. That will be in their quarterly financial statement to investors. That's the true position and the one which has driven their transfers.

They had that view from MAY onwards but legally didn't have to comment in their last financial statement as ALL fans were banned.

Yes they drew down on a £140m facility back in I think, June, but don't quote me on it, and had circa £90m at bank. But we still had staged payments to make on previous transfers at that stage and we had staff to pay knowing they were never going to work for another 3 months at best at that stage. We haven't spent it all, the money will either be returned or IF it isn't, then what might that allude to for January? So pay attention to the forthcomjng statement instead of Sky Splurts and Twatter. For the detail, no better source of the what's happening than our own Ed002. Sondont shoot that messenger.

There was, at that point, a worst case scenario of being back with fans in some type in October, with best case scenario of August. As we all know, that's changed dramatically. Not just here, but everywhere. Utd never bought into that rose coloured specs view, hence their red line on how much to pay but also, crucially, HOW to structure payments. As bad as we want a return to success, do you eant to be patient with a ling term plan, or do you want to put it ALL ON RED. Perhaps we should ask Leeds? Hindsight is a wonderful thing, no?

Track and trace is already proving in France and Germany that cases per 100k RISE in the areas after a football match.

Germany last week banned alcohol. Today Scotland will, partly to try and bring back large gathering events earlier.

All Governments are in new territory, with no roadmap for goodnl or bad decisions. All data is beibg measured to see what works and what doesn't. It's trial an error, and controlled by behaviours not of the sensible, but what I like to call the F@#&wit factor.

There is no doubt alcohol has great impact on social distancing. that's a world wide no brainer, you start off disciplined, then lose inhibitions and misbehave and do stuff you wouldn't do when sober.

Its a bloody nightmare, but it also makes sense. I can honestly say I am less in control after 5 or 6 stellas. I've done it myself. Despite ny sensible self telling me in advance to control my inebriated self. It just doesn't work. My alcohol infused self is an incompetent unreliable simpleton.

New habits are hard to form anyway, trying to maintain a new habit when pissed is something I am yet to master. I doubt I am alone.

So that's why I expect football to be on its arse. Even with fans allowed, matchday revenues greatest friend? Alcohol. Its just not going to happen. Ever tried queuing at any of OTs bars?

We all wanted Sancho at a decent price if we could afford it. But there are two sides to that also. Could Dortmund afford to keep him? Or for us not to buy him?

They lost Hakim back to Real and had to buy in the summer. They are the best supported team in Germany with the highest average attendances.

But they aren't allowed fans back in. Best case scenario for them? 16,000 fans per game from an average gate pf 81,000. That's massively damaging. From just missung 5 games at home, they LOST €12.5m euros.

They lose the ENTIRE €36.6M they generate from renting out siguna park as events are banned for the foreseeable. Despite having a net profit on transfers last year of €40m euros, that's less than HALF their net profit on trasnfers from the previous year. Overall they posted a net loss for that year of €49.7m. Despite only 5 GAMES revenues being lost. This summer window, their net profit on transfers was MINUS €46.3m. AND despite MAKING €40m on transfers.

Sustainable? So you lose €30m in gate receipts, €37m in asset income, carry forward a €49m loss into the season anyway and lose €46m in transfers from your summer net spend? Well you made €40m in transfers the year before and yet you STILL lost €49m. So in a C.V. year woth no fans no matchday revenues an €86m swing in profitability of your previous transfer business, what is your upcoming year looking like?

Thats without the downturn in TV rights, signed in June and worth €10m a year LESS to Dortmund than the previous contract. A final fun fact on that stat. The previous rights issue raised 85% MORE than the previous deal, this deal is 6% LESS than the current deal. Did clubs expect such a downturn in revenues from broadcasting?

In my personal opinion, commercially speaking, we were Dortmunds break even ticket for the upcoming season.
It will be an interesting few months to see how they equally to all other clubs, fare in such turbulent times.


So bearing in mind the general view of Utd's incompetence, one which I don't share, despite my Fan head saying so, my Supporter (google the definition, they're very different), I pose a question.

Would you rather, following the summer window and what is to come, be Man Utd after the window WITHOUT Sancho, or prefer to be Dortmund WITH Sancho right now?

Sadly we don't have the thumbs up or down button any longer, but I welcome other viewpoints on why we should have gone balls out to get something we ALL wanted, irrespective of the consequences.

{Ed047's Note - shappy, read this bad boy and weep! 😉🤣


13.) 08 Oct 2020
07 Oct 2020 22:57:40
Sorry Ed0047, wasnt meant to be a rant, but I just despair of terrible football analysis aligned to commercials where Utd by being commercially sound and managing risk are painted as the ones not to get a 'simple' deal over the line, saying Dortmund were frustrated by Utd not basically doing what benefited Dortmund but put Utd at risk and having been messed around and wronged in some way.

The reality is in my view very different. Dortmunds President was invisible during the summer so people may not know he is an ex politician of German left wing politics, who are leading the anti lockdown protests in Germany despite being the junior party in a coilition. He is deluding himself that Germany can return to normal and work through C.V. instead of social restrictions, which is far more to do with his politics and his imterest as Dortmund president than it is relevant to the popular view of the electorate overall, where the CDU are the party in control of decisions. They're conservative, as in, more risk averse, more financially astute and responsible, and prefer to take pain be criticised if necessary and make unpopular decisions.

Its baffling that NONE of these factors were even touched on during what was not really a transfer saga, it was a massive difference of views on risk, economics and heathcare projections and how their respectivd Governments were liekly to influebce their ability to make money and function normally, between 2 sporting clubs deciding largely on their assessment of their own Government's approach to a C.V.

Dortmund are convinced they will be back to normal in mere months, led by a politician who opposes lockdown, Utd are run by 3 investment bankers, all qualified economists who have access to world class futurologists, political contacts and analysts.

Call me stupid, but trained economists and investment bankers seem a more reliable barometer of risks around finances than a political drum banger whos PERSONAL, not business values appear to be clouding the way they lead and manage their own club.

Ironically, one leader is massively popular with fans, because all is rosy and there is nothing to worry about, the other is despised for not mortgaging the ranch.

Who is more likely to be right?

{Ed047's Note - apologies Cheshire, feel free to say as much as you like, my comment was only a joke in relation to your post outdoing any of his which are normally associated with such length but you outstripped him and then some!

I enjoy reading your posts mate, they are spot on, as I’m pretty certain everyone else does.

So as they say, “fill your boots” and keep them coming! 😁👍🏼


14.) 08 Oct 2020
08 Oct 2020 00:16:52
Bravo Cheshire Red, take a bow. I think your two posts in this thread are the best I have read on this site.

My view is that transfer fees have been beyond ridiculous for a while now. This could provide a welcome reset to the market.

I think you're right that Dortmond got greedy and are perhaps now regretting not accepting our final offer which I understand was £90 million? When you consider what you have explained it seems crazy that we offered that much and Dortmond turned us down.

Wallace has listed some of the younger players we have to look forward to so perhaps now is a time for patience with the expectation that it will soon come good for us. There is solace in this.

The problem still remains with the manager though who worries me greatly. Having a manager who can build something that is greater than the sum of its parts is perhaps more valuable than ever and no way is that Solksjaer.


15.) 08 Oct 2020
08 Oct 2020 14:13:42
Cheshire with some epic posts and a different view. Take a bow mate.


16.) 08 Oct 2020
08 Oct 2020 16:47:00
Doesn't tie in with the normal doom and gloom i'm very surprised 1 or 2 haven't been all over this because if really is at odds with the general mood on thd site.


17.) 08 Oct 2020
08 Oct 2020 17:38:26
Thanks and agree Cheshire Red. The intricacies of the business of football will fly over the head of a lot of our infantile "supporters" but most will understand and agree with you, and why the Sancho costs were rightly refused by the club.
My concerns would be around the new EU state aid package and whether that might be used to prop up the continents football clubs to avoid them having to succumb to PL transfer offers. Brexit happens in January remember, right when the next window opens, and the EU (especially Macron) have gone out of their way to try and weaken the PL many times before.


18.) 09 Oct 2020
09 Oct 2020 10:30:48
Cheers Ed, and I do like Shappys posts, takes his time to explore facts on lot ps the points he makes deapite his passion. don't always agree with his posts, but I do like the varied opinions on here.

Thanks to the otehr lads too, appreciate being heard even if not agreed with.

Prodigal makes a good point too. People may not remember many years ago Real Madrid were on the verge of administration, bailed out to the tune of hundreds of millions of Euros. In theory central government can use state aid for certain types of club structure, but only where they are operated as non profits with cooperative style membership structures. I would have to ask a mate who specialises in that, but I don't at first glance think Dortmund come under those rules as they only have 46% fan based ownership, the rest are corproate shareholders. None own more than 9% but they do still fall unfer rules of 'commerce'. However l, Madrid and Barcelona? Well they would qualify.

More worrying would be the power of regional or local government where the rules are far more circumspect on 'local economic and social value'. Interest free loans, gifts of land worth hundreds of millions, or even special purpose vehicles for shared investments are prefectly legal and, in fact, absolutely normal practice throughout the world, not just the EU. Everton wouldn't be building a new stadium without the gifting of the land as well as commitment of rates reductions, tax breaks and promise investment in transport routes and surrounding infrastruture. No surprise their chairman suddenly found his cash pockets immediately after that decision, leading to him splashing £130m on players even before ancellotti arrived.

Dont be too despondent though. Expect Trafford and Salford to do exactly that when Utd are ready to take the plunge. I estimate 3 to 5 years more of quietly buying up the land before a complete overhaul of plans and New Trafford vision being proposed.

Plus again the board are far from stupid on all these rules across EU or Brexit. I'm told we only bought a player at the time we did for exCtly the reason that after Brexit the deal wouldnhave oresented significantly greater problems relating to both EU and UK rules.

I have seen a lot said lately about Ole on here. I have, as usual I think, a different narrative but I want to do more historic checking to make sure I am not misremembering lots of stories of yesteryear, or indeed soeaking out of turn.

I last saw Ole at his hotel in Stockholm when we won the Europa League. Half the 99 team and around 40 other ex players were there too, all staying at the hotel. I will tell the story when I post.

Prior to him leaving the UK I knew him as a player. Knew him well.

I read opinions on here and all I can say is people just do not know the person they're talking about. He wasn't known as the baby faced assassin for nothing. He has ice in his blood and is a ruthless winner, not often loses it, but you would not want to be around when he did.

He was Roy's closest mate as a player for a reason. But he has control, and a sharp mind. But they share the same drive and intolerance of anything less than 100%

He isnt, and doesn't pretend to be a master tactician. Nor is he interested in being. He will employ people he trusts the judgment of for that, and he won't hesistate if he thinks he has picked the wrong person or there is someone better.

I would be interested to hear some of the views of posters who were around as I was during the pre Fergie years, as well as each of the 3 team rebuils he went through, aimply to see who they thoight was the tactician under Fergie's tenure

I will read with interest.


19.) 09 Oct 2020
09 Oct 2020 17:24:40
I’d put Carlos Queiroz down as the biggest reason for Fergie’s success outside his man management skills. Great post again Cheshire thanks.


20.) 09 Oct 2020
09 Oct 2020 17:47:36
Cheshire its been an enjoyable change to read your posts of late.


21.) 09 Oct 2020
09 Oct 2020 19:16:34
Cheshire

The point you are missing with Ole is that he isn’t a leader. Deadly assassin fine, doesn’t like fools fine. People miss the point about SAF’s genius and that was leadership. He was no tactician and that is one reason he didn’t succeed in Europe as much as he should have done.

Initially SAF built a team with a bond, like with Aberdeen it didn’t need to be technical it was belligerent and well organised, a team together with fight, like the manager, against authority.

SAF relied upon his No2 to do the training, tactics were straightforward. SAF only became more technical when Quiroz arrived but the principles of the 80’s remained.

If your aim is to say Ole is the SAF character and it is others who should dictate tactics then you are missing the point about the personality, character and leadership of SAF which took him to another level. The game has a more technical nature now, the 90’s United would be bypassed as it was at the time when meeting a technical team.


22.) 09 Oct 2020
09 Oct 2020 21:05:12
Cheshire, just want to say fella, your posts in the last few days, and the one's on this thread in particular, have been a breath of friggin fresh air on here. So refreshing to read something genuinely interesting, rather than the stale same old, same old, that's been a feature of the site lately.


23.) 10 Oct 2020
10 Oct 2020 11:14:18
Cheshire Red

Just had chance to read your posts in full, enjoyable read and for someone in the financial field they make logical sense. In answer to your question, I would rather be Man Utd without Sancho but I was saying for weeks we should have walked away from that deal and looked elsewhere. I am actually pleased we didn’t crumble for once and didn’t just pay up the full amount. It will help us in future negotiations, the club we are buying from at least may know we mean what we say, for a change.

A few months ago on here I wrote a piece about how I didn’t think we would have a big net spend due to the impact of CV on finances, particularly revenue but it also affects cash flow, my assessment was correct. There is no doubt there is financial expertise at the club, I have worked with these type of finance people, they are almost always very astute. Their problem has been trying to operate on the football side too much, limited manoeuvre wriggle room due to the leverage (debt) the club is in and from what I have seen, lacked ability to negotiate.

Negotiation is an art, a special skill, one which ordinary financiers are not usually expert in. It’s why we are still dealing with Brexit, previous PM May started from a soft position and we haven’t recovered since, regardless of views, if you start soft you will get a worse deal in any negotiations. Maybe just maybe, the step away from the Sancho deal indicates the club negotiators have learned, or of course the just couldn’t afford it full stop. Whatever, it’s a good clear message we won’t be held to ransom.


24.) 14 Oct 2020
14 Oct 2020 05:53:44
@cheshire, cracking post with loads of things making loads of sense.

To add on, I do remember reading somewhere that evidently Ole had discused with woodward that our recruitment has been terrible, what with going after mercinaries who need to be enticed by the wage packages, which is why we have struggled and evidently this is one of the key things that'been addressed behind the scenes, apparently vdb took either paycut/ same wage to be here and that's the kind a deals they're after.

Have no idea how true or otherwise it is, perhaps u or one of the eds can chip in.