15 Aug 2013 22:03:58
Right well i've had abit of time off which has been good and its allowed me to take a step back and look at things rather than get caught up in all the transfer business.

I think a toxic combination of a lack of activity plus us being linked to unattainable targets has whipped up a frenzy of panic and fear amoungst many of us fans.

So I did what I do best in these situations and look back and reassess what it is we need.

Now this may not come as a suprise to those of you who are familiar with my posts but I am a huge fan of tactical analysis. And I do keep written records of things I notice about our team over the course of the season.

When I look back at the weaknesses we had last season then things become clearer for me to see how we need to move forward.

First off defensively we were poor, so poor infact that Stoke City who finished 13th only conceeded two more goals than us.

We were so poor defensively for several reasons.

First off we were poor defensively because our wingers had a poor season. This sounds silly but because of their lack of form they didn't take on their man or run in behind enough. This had two effects, first of it ment to opposition could press up against us and cut out our threat out wide. And secondly it forced our full backs to venture further forward to create some width, this leaving us over exposed at the back.

Second was are very fragile centre. With Carrick being made to do nearly all of the defensive duties despite being a playmaker this left the midfield over exposed and allowed teams to flood forward onto us. Our full backs being out off position shouldn't be an issue as long as everyone in the centre is marked up. But our lack of a defenisvely minded mifielder ment we had no one to track the runner. We conceded a lot of goals last season to midfielders who ran into our box un marked to score a pull back or cross from a wide man who got in behind our full backs.

Oddly going forward wasn't so much a problem for us, we comfortably out scored all of our opponants. We scored 11 goals more than the second highest scoring team last season(Chelsea). And we managed that with an under performing Wayne Rooney as well as our wingers having the poorest season we ever had from our wingers and Danny Welbeck only scoring a couple of goals for us.

If Kagawa can kick on next season and we can get two or three of our wingers performing then with or without Rooney we should be able to score more goals this season than we scored last.

So going forward we were strong but defensively we were weak. We also failed to control the games as well as we should and we played with a sluggish tempo too often.

My assessment of our team was that we needed to add someone in midfield who would bring energy and a strong defensive work rate. Carrick will be our key midfielder this season, but if we look at what his strengths are then you see that he made more passes than any other player in the league last season and he made more forward passes than any other midfielder last season. But when you look at tackles and interceptions he is half way down the list. Carrick is a creative midfielder who keeps the ball and dictates the tempo of a game, but last season he was hamstrung by poor options to pass to out wide and he was held back by the amount of defensive work he had to do.

In Carrick and Kagawa we have two of the best creative passers in the league who both have great vision and passing. But our midfield lacks any strength or athourity.

Look at all the best teams in the world and they all have someone to do the dirty work in midfield. Barca have Busquets, Bayern havd Martinez, Dortmund have Sven Bender and Real have Khedira. Where as we make our best passing midfielder do a job that limits the effect he can have on the team.

Signing a defensive midfielder would solidify our midfield which would shore up our defense. It would give us a solid base to build on, while also releasing Carrick so as he can focus more on controlling the game with his passing and we can dictate the game more and force our playing style onto our opponants. That higher line would force teams futher back creating more space infront of them to launch attacks and create goal scoring oppotunities. This would mean we can bring our wide men into the game more and hopefully bring the best out of them.

People keep saying we need a creative midfielder yet we have several creative players yet we don't have enough players doing the hard running that would enable us to dictate games.

Having looked through all my scouting notes I have narrowed down all the potential midfield targets down to who I feel would be the best three options.

Luiz Gustavo would probably be top of my list, this guy has limitless energy and covers every blade of grass, yet he is also a fantastic passer of the ball. He tackles hard but maybe isn't the best reader of the game and doesn't make as many interceptions as you'd want from a defensive midfielder but his amazing pass completion rate and his sheer energy means he still comes out top.

Morgan Schneiderlin maybe isn't the most popular choice amoung fans but true football aficionados will recognise his ability. He made more tackles and interceptions per game last season than any other midfielder in the prem. He is a very good passer who doesn't panic under pressure. He also has boundless energy. He isn't as good a passer as Gustavo but he is better defensively, has more of physical presence and is prem proven. But a lack of european football does count against him.

My final pick is Romulo Borges Monteiro, he has the best reading of the game out of these three. Making interceptions rather than crunching tackles is certainly a benefit when playing in europe as we are less likely to give fouls away. He also has the ability to drive forward with the ball which isn't something the other two do much at all. This ability to play a quick one two with someone then drive forward with the ball 20-30 yards automatically puts the opposition and the back foot and can be excellent for creating chances against a team that is tough to break down. So he offers a unique attacking threat that the others don't. But his passing is the most limited out of the three with his prefering to make short passes rather than 25 yard plus passes.

Of course there is another similar player who we have been heavily linked to. Marouane Fellaini, Imo he would certainly do a great job and help us implement all we need too. My only problem with Fellaini is his touch and mobility. I don't think a midfield of him and Carrick would be mobile enough to deal with the best midfields in europe.

Like I said we have enough options up front and in the creative thrid of the pitch especially with Zaha joining and Januzaj showing that he could step up. Long term we will need a replacement for Carrick, but that could wait a year then next summer we could look at someone like Gundogan, Koke or Verratti.

The only other signing we could do with is at Left back, imo unless we get Baines then Evra needs to stay to keep some stability in the dressing room. If Baines is not available then we should look for a young talented LB to be Evra's understudy but who has the ability to push him for his place this season. Obviously you have young Luke Shaw or Ben Davies within the Premier league. But two players I like the look of are Alberto Moreno and Ricardo Rodriguez. Any of those four would be an improvement with the potential to be world class.

IMO someone like Ronaldo or Fabregas would be a bonus signing that would make us serious contenders for europe. But first and foremost we need to bring in the the players who will allow us to control games and impose ourselves on our opponants.

Hope you've enjoyed the read, and it's good to be back. lol.

1.) 16 Aug 2013
Welcome back shappy, good post. enjoyed reading it :) zee

2.) 16 Aug 2013
Good post Shappy. I think we all recognise the areas where the weaknesses are but it's great to be able to think about it in more detail. Do you think Moyes will stick with 4-4-2 though? I think he might play with two much more narrow players in an advanced position rather than traditional wingers in a 4-3-3/4-3-2-1. That would go a long way towards explaining the apparent transfer targets.

3.) 16 Aug 2013
Me likes you

4.) 16 Aug 2013
So

1) we need a defensive midfielder
2) possibly a left back
3) would be good to sign Ronaldo or Fabregas
4) you keep scouting notes

Amazing post Shappy, lol. Enjoyed it.

DL10

5.) 16 Aug 2013
Nice one shappy, always a pleasure.

one would hope Moyes has made similar observations which begs the question why he seems to be letting Gustavo go for a song to either arsenal or Wolfsburg?

surely he's got somebody else lined up who can perform the role to an equally high standard? to let the transfer window close without bringing in this sort of player would border on criminal negligence.

he may yet be charged with the offence of 'misuse of a public office' ;)

6.) 16 Aug 2013
Brilliant analysis shappy, much like your old stuff that I loved to read.

7.) 16 Aug 2013
What a cracking post. :)

8.) 16 Aug 2013
Welcome back. Classic shappy post, a very good post and agree with most of it.

Hb

9.) 16 Aug 2013
Best post in along while Shappy. Pretty much the same thoughts I had regarding the players we need but I still think a good winger should be on that list too. I'm not 100% convinced Tony V can replicate his form from 2011/2012 and Nani has a lot to prove consistency wise next season. I don't think we should put too much pressure on either Zaha or Januzaj to step up too quickly. Perhaps keep Nani and Zaha for the right wing position and use Tony to cover injuries unless he rediscovers some of the form he was missing last year.
That still leaves the left pretty barren. I don't think Kagawa should be used on the left, and I don't think Welbeck is the answer either. This is one position that needs filling in my opinion

10.) 16 Aug 2013
Great post!

My biggest concern is to do late business. Adaptation. It worked with RVP but it doesn't mean that will happen with everyone.

We do need a DM.

11.) 16 Aug 2013
Great post shapps.

Singh

12.) 16 Aug 2013
Shappy, welcome back. Missed reading your riddiculously long posts. Anyhow, beeing an overly obcessive fan myself, I will reply with a rather long comment on my own.

I watch a lot of football matches myself and tend to keep an eye on players who impress me and tend to keep an eye on them.

Starting with the defense, we have a fair bit of quality at the back. Rafael is a beast and so is Jones. Evans is gradually becoming one of the best central defenders in the league and has improved massively in the last couple of seasons and imo should be in the strongest XI. Smalling is a solid cover with lots of talents and so is Ferdinand. Vidic is our captain and should be an undisputed starter. Evra on the other hand is a defensive liability, an accident waiting to happen and doesn't seem to understand the concept of marking a player. Buttner is fantastic going forward but unreliable at the back, much like Evra, which is why I don't understand why he hasn't played more last season since he offers a higher workrate than our lovely frenchman. Fabio is very talented, can cover both flanks and an injury free season would do him a world of good.

So it looks like the quality is there but somehow we seemed to concede goals by the douzains.

You are right about one of the reasons. We use attacking fullnacks who had to push forward even more so than usual since our wingers have been a bit worse than rubbish, which is why they left gaps at the back that the opposing wide playerrs made the most of. Add to that the absence of a defensive midfielder who would cover the fullback's positions when they push forward certainly didn't help the matter. carrick was given the job but he's not the fastest of midfielders and even if he was he couldn't cover both flanks, which is one of the reasons we need a defensive midfielder next to him.

The second reason, and imo bigger reason is that the tactics didn't use the centre backs.

There are 2 types of defenders: the all action battler ( Vidic, Terry, Cahill, Pepe. ) and the ball player, whp pushes forward lunching attacks and relies on positioning ( Silva, Ferdinand. ) . A partnership between 2 players of different types is imo the most solid because they would complement each other nicely.

Last season we played with Evans and Ferdinand, who have extremely similar styles and don't complement each other. When you have 2 defenders of that type, you have to play a higher line but Ferdinand is too slow to for it to work. The fact that we played a deeper defensive line didn't suit either of them since Ferdinand is too slow to be making last ditch tackles and jumping everywhere in the box and his reflexes are deteriorating. So imo he should only be used as cover. And in that respect, a deeper line with attacking fullbacks doesn't work since they have to cover a lot of ground before guetting to the defensive line.

A partnership of Evans and Vidic would be more solid, albeit a bit deep since Vidic is no Usain Bolt but would be solid. If jones or Smalling are playing instead of the veterans than we would be able to play in much higher up the pitch.


Moving onto midfield. Carrick is a top class player, "there's no doubt about that". He has the ability to control the tempo of a game with his passing range given the right circumtances ( a decent partner would be one of those ). He can either be partnered with a creative midfielder in an attacking formation where we are likely to concede goals but score a lot ( Modric, Fabregas?, Cabaye ) or a hard working ball winner ( Vidal, Gustavo, Fellaini . )

And for the attack, an attacking midfielder who can cover the wings would be great but a bit of a luxury if Rooney doesn't leave.

Moving onto possible targets. In defese we should be trying to get a left back but we're kind of well stocked even though we lack a bit in quality.

Baines' case is well documented.

Our first option would be Alex Sandro. Fantastic little player, very talented and kind of a left footed Rafael, although I don't think prizing him away from Porto would be easy.

The second option, who would be my first choice, is Coentrao. It looks like he wants out of Madrid and they are willing to sell. He is solid defensively and a skillful dribbler, much like a younger Evra.

Moving onto midfield. Cleverley is not good enough to be first choice, Anderson is not consistent enough. Some realistic targets:

Fellaini who everybody knows his ups and downs.

Luis Gustavo would be a very solid and cheapish option ( considering his ability ). He covers a lot of ground and is a very capable ball winner and has a rather impressive passing range and would not be easiely bullied off the ball. He could also cover Carrick in the DLP position should he need some rest. Gustavo would bring out the best in Carrick.

Talking of someone who wouldn't be easiely bullied off the ball, how about Nemanja Matic? Strong as an Ox, faster than Fellaini and just as capable defensivly, also he is a better player. But he is not proven in the premier league and wouldcost a fair bit of money.

As for Romulo Borges, I've watched him a douzain of times or so. He is very capable defensively and could launch attacks at will. he is a bit like a more defensive version of Gundogan ( not as good though) and would make a perfect long term Carrick replacement.

Although Romulo is not the only Rusian premier league based midfielder I'd be willing to buy. Imo we should go all in for Axel Witsel. He would be the best box to box player we'd be able to get. Fantastic going forward, intelligent passer, bone crushing tackler ( litteraly ). Very skillful despite his size.

As for the Schneiderlin part. Imo he was the second best midfielder in the league last season and his stats are impressive. But there is a better option who wouldn't cost more in the bundesliga: Milan badelj. I've written plenty of times about him in the past, he averages around 4 tackles and 4 interceptions a game and yet he is not a defensive midfielder, more of a deep lying playmaker and would be good in a double pivot system next to Carrick.

Cabaye and Modric have been discussed numerous times on this page so I am not going to bother.

As for the attacking player. If Rooney doesn't leave we wouldn't Need one per say but a creative winger wouldn't weaken us especially if we manage to sell one of our wingers. Lamela would be my first choice. He is extremly creative and has this ability that none of our current wingers seem capable of atm (not counting zaha ), which is a very rare skill called dribbling. He would be great on the right of an interchangeable front 3 ( 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3 ) and would push us one step closer to play with inverted wingers in a more modern formation ( like Real and Bayern ) .

And if we do lose Rooney, i'd want us to go for Eriksen who would make a good addition, as would Willian . They can both play through the middle or on the left to accomodate Kagawa.

13.) 16 Aug 2013
Respect is due. Great post great points.

Someone buy that man a pint!

14.) 16 Aug 2013
16 Aug 2013 11:07:24
WB Shappy and your broadsheets good well thought out post but you missed out VIDAL? I've kinda given up hope of us going for him as well. Gustavo is my second choice too, now don't all laugh but I think Cabaye would do a very good job for us.