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srrfc17's Posts and Other Poster's Replies To srrfc17's Posts
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07 Feb 2014 18:07:06
I see people saying Rannochia is a possibility. Personally I wouldn't want him, don't think he's good enough. What does everyone else think?
29 Jan 2014 22:43:25
I see have odds of 4/9 on Kroos to join Utd. That would suggest there is chance he will join. Anyone seen if there odds available for him to stay at Bayern?
1.) The odds are simply a case of the betting agencies responding to all of the tripe in the media. They're also affected by betting patterns - which again - are dictated by whatever stories the papers (or persons on twitter) make up.
2.) News paper speculation is not enough to slash the odds into 4/9, decent sums of money have been put onto him making the switch, if you wanna argue with a bookie though go ahead!
3.) 1980 - As I said - money being placed affects odds - but that tends to be based on media speculation and the say so of people who are supposedly ITK.
Bookies have had us down as favourites for about 20 players throughout this window with a few of those being odds on at times. I'd never bet on transfers because the odds are massively manipulated by bookies. They simply cut odds on anything that may be remotely possible just in case (I've even noticed a few instances where they have been taking bets on a player's transfer but not on them moving to the club which they had been strongly linked with).
When those in charge of managing the odds read that we've put bids in for Kroos and Dante - they shorten the odds dramatically. As of the moment I'm doubting that we've placed bids for either.
4.) I would of thought to get a better thought on a transfer via betting sites, u should be first looking at the odds on him staying at his present club, then look at the shortest odds on clubs linked to get a rough answer of a transfer?
5.) People betting on media specualtion aren't smart betters, there just sticking £20.00's on or whatever they can afford to bet on things that they think may happen, not enough to slash the odds so quickly in one day, I believe he was 2/1 yesterday and now around 4/11 in places, there will have been decent money lumped on threw someone who either knows something or thinks he knows something threw an unreliable source.
6.) CTR - Most transfer betting will not have a market for 'stay at current club' because nine times out of ten it would have the shortest odds of any of the markets. Why would people bet on Kroos to go to Manchester United (odds on) if he was still odds on to stay at his current club? Koke is a great example of this at the moment. He's just signed a new contract at AM and so should be odds on to stay - yet slybet have him at 5/6 to move to United.
1980 - We seem to be saying the same thing? Two days ago the odds on Kroos to United were 2/1. Papers/twitter report that a bid is going to or has gone in. People lump money on the transfer and the odds shorten. Ergo - twitter/paper talk has lead to the switch in odds and thus in some instances odds are no more of an indicator as to the likelihood of a transfer happening than what's being said in the paper.