24 May 2021 12:21:49
A lot has been made of the battle between DDG and Henderson for the United No.1 shirt this season. Arguably it is a battle that has been made more complicated by the running of the club. Giving DDG such a large and long-term contract has put the club in a position where they almost have to either play him or sell him. While there are few clubs who would be willing or able to come close to matching his current wages.

So how have each of them performed. The eye test would suggest that Henderson is slightly better playing out from the back, more vocal and willing to come off his line enabling the team to play a higher line. Yet DDG even after a dip in his previous other-worldly shot stopping ability still seems a better bet when making a quick reaction save.

What do the stats say? Well, it would appear Henderson has the edge this season. Both have kept 12 clean sheets, although Henderson has kept 12 clean sheets in 26 games compared to DDG's 35. Suggesting that had Henderson been our keeper all season we might have kept more clean sheets than if DDG had played all the games. This plays into the idea that while DDG is a better shot stopper, it is Henderson's all-round game including marshalling his area that improves the defence around him leading to a better defensive record overall.

Yet oddly when we look at the save percentage numbers that doesn't appear to be the case. Henderson has managed a save percentage of 76.6% in the EPL and a massive 91.7% in the Europa league. Compared to DDG's 67.1% in the EPL and 80% in the Europa league.

That would suggest that it is Henderson that is the better shot-stopper and not DDG. The issue is that context is needed. While Henderson is saving a higher percentage of the shots he is facing, he is facing fewer shots, while the type of shots they are saving also impacts the save percentage. DDG is facing more shots and more shots from close range.

Again, this all comes down to goalkeeping style, DDG's insistence to stay on his line means he isn't clearing aerial threats and he is inviting pressure on him by not pushing up and pushing his defenders further forward. This means he faces a higher number of shots in the box, while it also has a knock-on effect for the rest of the side.

Whereas, when Henderson plays his better command of his area, his willingness to come out for high balls and move off his line means the play is pushed 10 yards further out. This gives the defence more confidence and means he faces fewer shots overall and more shots from a greater distance. These are generally easier to save and contribute to his higher save percentage.

What does this mean moving forward?
Well, that would depend on how you want to play as a side. DDG is the better reactive keeper, he will not come off his line which in turn drags the defence 10 yards or so deeper and may contribute to us conceding a higher number of shots inside our area. If you want to play counter attacking reactive football, then DDG would be the better choice. The defence would need more players better in the air and more pace and mobility. But by him dragging the defence back it will likely have the knock-on effect of creating more space in behind by inviting the opposition forward more. Space our quick players can counter. Although his poor distribution might make that harder to take full advantage of. So, we would probably need better defenders and midfielders at playing accurate long passes to fully make the most of that style.

On the other hand, Henderson starting would enable the defence to play 10-15 yards higher up the pitch, which can place more pressure on the opposition and enable us to maybe dictate the play more. Play with more possession. We would need another forward player who can unlock deeper defences, as currently we rely heavily on Bruno. Yet defensively, we will concede less chances in our area, and less shots against us in general. Probably leading to more clean sheets and less pressure on the forwards to score multiple goals to win games. Henderson is the more pro-active option.

Really it comes down to preference of style of play. Personally, I prefer to see us play a more aggressive, offensive, and pro-active style. I want to see us impose ourselves on the opposition, play a higher line, press them, and force and dictate the play. Which from what we can see from the keeper's performances this season would mean that Henderson would appear to be the better option.

However, that then leave the club in the awkward position of having to try and find a buyer for DDG. Which on his wages and the current financial situation might be difficult.

1.) 24 May 2021
24 May 2021 12:53:58
Stats aside.

I feel a lot more comfortable with DDG in goal. Big call to sell him and employ Henderson as No.1. Not really sure that he is the better option.

2.) 24 May 2021
24 May 2021 13:07:42
I would go with Henderson next year. I think he commands his box better and deals with crosses better than DDG. Obviously DDG makes saves that most GK's wouldn't but I think if we can strengthen our CB position with someone to partner Maguire, the chances other teams create will be less. If we can restrict teams to crosses and shots from distance then Henderson is more than capable of dealing with this. He appears to be more vocal and has an arrogance about in as well which I like.

3.) 24 May 2021
24 May 2021 13:30:09
For me I'd sell Henderson and buy Meslier, better than Henderson and three years younger, so will give DDG time to see his contract out.

4.) 24 May 2021
24 May 2021 13:33:48
@shapps, how did the club actually complicate the matter? by giving a contract to the best player for the previous couple of seasons? by giving bucket loads of money to the player who was being chased by top teams in europe?

I don't care much for these stats as they are quite similar (atleast to my untrained eye) and there are more ways to skin a cat.

I know media created this buzz about Henderson (rightfully so, after the season he had last year) but the fact is he is 21 and if he really is as great as everyone seems to think he is, he should have no trouble fighting for, and ultimately wrestlin away, the spot from David. But if he isn't up for it, i know who i am getting rid of!

On the flip side, David is 29 and its not like he is on his last legs, competition breeds excellence, maybe David raises his game even more, and we get like another 5 or 6 years out of him and concentrate on areas that actually need improvin. Also, if there's anyone in the squad who had deserved a big fat contract, its David! (although personally i wish all these footy players were on like 500 quid a week - but that's a whole other post ;) )

5.) 24 May 2021
24 May 2021 13:36:21
I got bored after the first set of stats.

6.) 24 May 2021
24 May 2021 13:38:39
Angel, I kind of agree that in an isolated incident like a shot inside the box I feel more confident in DDG than Henderson.

I just wonder how much of that is based on my experiences of the past 9 years with DDG between the sticks. Am I basing my judgement on his ability to make the save on how he has performed 3-4 years ago.

Because recently as seen his save percentage is lower, so statistically Henderson is more likely to make the save than DDG.

I tried to include the context of how and where these shots are coming from, but the bottom line is Henderson has kept as many clean sheets as DDG in 9 games fewer.

Ultimately I think it comes down to how you want to play and the style in which you want to defend.

If the battle is in your penalty area and you have constant wave of pressure then DDG is probably better to repel that constant barrage.

However, if you want to impose yourself on the opposition and take the game to them rather than be under the cosh then Henderson is the better option.

7.) 24 May 2021
24 May 2021 13:45:18
2 "TOP KEEPERS" at one club doenst work, never has done, never will. International level is a bit different, one of them has to go in the summer otherwise it will kick off behind the scenes.

8.) 24 May 2021
24 May 2021 13:45:59
Unless they were playing the same position the stats are useless to a large degree.
For example if ddg was playing against higher ranked teams then its less likely he will keep the % of clean sheets.
To my mind ole is making a complete horlicks of it. Just pick 1 make a decision and stand by it. Both are good keepers. He needs to have the courage of his conviction and stand up for what he thinks is right.
Its been a bit like that at Chelsea too with keepers chopping and changing its doors the defence no good.
Ddg is better than Henderson imo. But ole doesn't seem to know what to do so no point asking in here 🤣🤣
My gut says sell Henderson keep ddg but that's doesn't take into account the players wishes. If ddg has itchy feet get shut of him.

9.) 24 May 2021
24 May 2021 14:11:05
With DDG, we can never play a high line and that affects our play with Maguire in the side. If we have Maguire, then it has to be Henderson we play with.

10.) 24 May 2021
24 May 2021 14:01:32
Scooby they are a complete load of bollix because its not comparing like with like.

11.) 24 May 2021
24 May 2021 14:44:49
Ken I actually think it has been managed quite well? We have given Henderson enough meaningful football to properly assess him.

I think we need to go with Henderson to be honest, he is only going to improve, whereas De Gea has peaked and is on the decline. We talk all the time on here about being ruthless etc, but DDG has started to cost us more points than he has won over the last couple of seasons. De Gea might have a better highlight reel, but I think the defence would rather be in front of Henderson.

Cracking player and was without doubt the best in the world for a while, but I think time to move on.

12.) 24 May 2021
24 May 2021 15:04:12
De Gea 2 years back was the best shot stopper in the world. Some of his saves were unreal.
However he doesn't seem the same player as 2-3 years ago. He makes regular mistakes and hasn't evolved his other aspects of the game.

13.) 24 May 2021
24 May 2021 15:22:08
We need to keep Henderson, he may not be able to make the ridiculous reflex saves at close range that DDG pulls off, but his all-round game is better, and the defence play better ahead of him.

If we can't find a buyer for DDG, there is no harm in keeping him as second choice with the underestanding that he will be allowed to leave if a club comes in for him.

Keeping two top keepers is only a problem when the manager is trying to keep both happy and not really picking a number 1, or when the number 1 is replaced but the club try to force them to stay as 2nd choice. DDG can't complain if the club are willing to let him go but no-one comes in for him.

14.) 24 May 2021
24 May 2021 16:45:15
DDG is 30, 31 in November. Both keepers have confidence issues. In reality DDG has more top flight experience. Henderson should have made the number 1 spot for himself when OGS gave him the chance.

I wonder if Henderson will get picked for the Euros?

15.) 24 May 2021
24 May 2021 16:29:34
Callan henderson made more mistakes leading to goals against this year than ddg.

16.) 24 May 2021
24 May 2021 17:18:17
@Mad Hatter. With Nick Pope out the euros, I think Hendo, Johnstone and Pickford will make the squad.

17.) 24 May 2021
24 May 2021 18:59:12
Ken I thought the stats were irrelevant lol. Now de gea failing to come off his line doesn’t count as an error leading to a goal and there multiple examples. Can’t bang on about us not being ruthless, yet being happy to have de gea as number 1 and selling a very promising younger keeper who’s done just as well, if not edged it in terms of performance this season.

De gea will not get any better, Henderson will.

18.) 24 May 2021
24 May 2021 19:56:17
You get it caolan. tongue in cheek. it's impossible to say anything unless it's over a long period of time as you can't get a trend that is like for like unless you do it over a few seasons even then its skewed but has a bit more comparable data.

I think hemderson is a good keeper i'm just not convinced he is top class or ever will be. For me its the most vital position to have a truly top class performer. Ddg has fallen down the rankings as was for a time in the top 3 in the world but imo he is still a safer bet.

{Ed014's Note - which is why I said get Oblak, stop mucking about with could be, should be or was or poxy stats for that matter.

Stop all this accepting less than the best crap.

19.) 24 May 2021
24 May 2021 20:17:38
Henderson would not be near this team if he wasn't English. De Gea is a much better keeper. This nonsense that Henderson commands his area is a moot point when he struggles with any sort of shot on target.

He should have been on loan again this season. The club have done Romero dirty and Dave dirty this year. All for a keeper that has never set the world a light.

20.) 24 May 2021
24 May 2021 21:21:30
Ed014 i'd love oblak he is probably no 1 in the works and had been fire a sustained period.
Obviously not just as simple as go get him but if ddg would like to return there maybe something could be done. However according to ed002 that's not where the club see the priority lies.

21.) 24 May 2021
24 May 2021 21:22:06
Mumbles a bit harsh. I honestly thought he was excellent for Sheffield United last season.

I’d love oblak, but unfortunately £108m buy out clause means no chance.

22.) 24 May 2021
24 May 2021 21:24:30
id love oblak he is probably no 1 in the works and had been fire a sustained period.
Obviously not just as simple as go get him but if ddg would like to return there maybe something could be done. However according to ed002 that's not where the club see the priority lies.

23.) 24 May 2021
24 May 2021 22:45:11
DDG for me. Henderson hasn’t particularly looked as impressive as all the hype suggested. I think there would be plenty of demand for both. DDG’s concentration went early in the season but if he can regain that there’s no contest for me.

24.) 25 May 2021
25 May 2021 00:18:06
Caolan, he did really well on loan there but if we didn't already own him, no one would have said "Sign Sheffield United's goalkeeper to replace De Gea".

I think Henderson has been mediocre at best for us. The goals he concedes, a lot of them I think De Gea would do better. We had Romero deputise over the last few years and played brilliant, barely put a foot wrong. No one wanted him in ahead of De Gea. The young English goal keeper with one year in the premier league does well, and he's now United's number 1. I just think it's another thing the manager has handled poorly.

25.) 25 May 2021
25 May 2021 09:59:12
I don't think anyone would choose Henderson over someone like Oblak, I just don't see how we afford him and bring in key players in other positions.

Mumbles, while you are entitled to your view, that is a very subjective opinion. Your view that Henderson struggles with shots on target just isn't backed up by the facts. The fact is Henderson saves a higher percentage of shots on target than DDG has this season. That is a fact. While you can say you feel like some of the shots he has let in DDG would have saved, that is subjective and there is no statistical evidence to back that up.

The facts are Henderson has kept the same number of clean sheets in fewer games, while he saves a higher percentage of the shots he faces.

While I have offered up a possible reason for this, his style of play means he faces fewer shots from close range.

The team has generally defended better, and kept more clean sheets per game with Henderson compared to DDG.

That doesn't mean Henderson is perfect, he has made a few mistakes, as had DDG. Personally I just feel like Henderson will learn more form these mistakes and will improve with more game time. Whereas, I feel DDG has peaked and is on the decline.

26.) 25 May 2021
25 May 2021 11:32:25
Stats mean nothing Shappy. If stats were king, Ole would have been sacked 3 times over.

Who decides if a shot should be saved? You? Watch the Liverpool goals again. He's at fault for 3 of them and even Firminhos header he's caught on the hop.

That 4th goal in that game was the worst goalkeeping iv seen in a long time.

You say he's made more clean sheets in less games but I would assume this year he's made more mistakes too.

I said at the start of the season that he needed another season on loan. He hasn't done enough in my opinion to oust Dave. I watch every game, I will trust my eyes over xyz goals/ shots attempted average nonsense.

27.) 25 May 2021
25 May 2021 14:24:31
Mumbles, if stats meant nothing then clubs wouldn't spend millions of pounds a year using them as part of their analysis of players.

As for the stats, I don't decide whether a shot should be saved. If you are looking at things like expected goals or similar, them it done on an analysis of thousands of games to work out a system where a shot is given a score based on angle, speed, type of shot etc. It's a mathematical calculation to give a rating about the likelihood of a shot being saved or not.

I didn't use that statistic, I used save percentage. Which is based simply on whether an on target shot is saved or not. I also used clean sheets in context of the number of games played.

Neither of which are complicated or controversial.

I place each into context, and stated the likely difference is due to the goal keeping style of each keeper.

DDG stays on his line and relies heavily on his shot stopping ability, which is well above average and was world class for many years. It's a style that has worked for him, but it invites pressure and often means a keeper will face more shots. 100% even though his shot stopping ability has declined he is still a better shot stopper than Henderson is currently and may even ever will be.

Yet Henderson is more proactive in his approach, he does come off his line. Is more vocal and possibly more confident (or at least displays more confidence) . This approach means he has to face fewer shots and arguably from further out (making them more save-able in theory) . That might contribute to him saving a higher proportion of the shots he has faced compared to DDG this season.

He is still young and he will make mistakes. I'd argue that he wasn't at fault for all the Liverpool goals and you're being slightly unfair on him.

Personally I think you made your mind up that the lad wasn't ready before the season kicked off. As you say felt he needed another season on loan. As such you may have a confirmation bias and are only seeing what you expect/ want to see to confirm your previously held belief.

My eyes say there hasn't been a huge amount between them this season. Henderson has done some things better, while DDG "feels" like a better shot stopper, or at least I have more confidence that he will make the save.

When diving into the statistics it appears that Henderson has edged it. Not by a huge margin, but he has out performed DDG in several key measurable areas.

Like I said in my original post, there probably isn't enough between them to 100% confirm one as better than the other. Ultimately it just comes down to whether you'd prefer a reactive keeper like DDG or a proactive keeper like Henderson.

On the whole the footballing landscape seems to be leaning more towards proactive keepers recently. With Pep and Klopp spending huge fees on keepers who come off their line more, get involved in play more and are generally more proactive in their approach. They appreciate that this style of keeping means they will concede more of a certain type of goal, but feel the benefits out weigh the drawbacks.

That's why Chelsea, Spurs and pretty much every EPL side bar maybe City and Liverpool have shown an interest in Henderson. As have Borussia Dortmund. While few teams have shown any real interest in DDG since the fax machine broke.